Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and tips up every game to end in a stalemate on Sunday.
Newcastle are running on fumes.
Since Boxing Day, they've played 24 matches - that's basically a game every three-and-a-half days. We've seen this story before with them. When they try to compete on multiple fronts, the intensity drops off as the season wears on. It happened a couple of seasons ago and it's happening again now.
The signs are there in plain sight. Against Barcelona, they were excellent in the first half, completely flat in the second. That's the toll this schedule takes. Mentally and physically, it's incredibly difficult to maintain high performance levels for 90 minutes.
For all their fatigue issues, Newcastle should absolutely fly out of the blocks here. Derby atmosphere, home crowd, adrenaline pumping - this is where tired legs don't matter as much. It's when the game stretches into the later stages that those energy levels start to dip. That's where Sunderland could make their move.
Newcastle's quality and energy should shine through early, before the fatigue kicks in. Back them to win the first half at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Sometimes the best angles come from understanding how two managers' styles collide rather than just focusing on the match result.
When an Unai Emery team meets a Nuno Espirito Santo team, you tend to get a very specific type of game. One full of disruption, duels and plenty of niggly fouls. Nuno's sides are well-drilled when it comes to breaking up rhythm and getting into the faces of the opposition.
The numbers back that up in a big way.
Across the last nine meetings between teams managed by those two, Nuno's sides have averaged a hefty 16 fouls per match.
Villa build from the back and Ezri Konsa is a key part of that process. He's comfortable in possession, often stepping forward and inviting pressure and that's exactly the type of scenario where fouls are committed. When West Ham go hunting to disrupt Villa's rhythm, Konsa will be one of the players drawn into contact.
He's been fouled at least once in eight of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.8 fouls won per 90 minutes. That's a really solid baseline and when you layer in the expected game state - a stop-start contest with plenty of challenges - it points firmly in the direction that his two or more fouls won line is a nice slice of value at Evens with Sky Bet.
Is this the biggest game in Tottenham's Premier League history?
Well, what we do know is that'll it'll be full of tension played against the backdrop of high stakes. That should see a healthy card count on the table.
Xavi Simons has drawn 41 cards in his last three seasons in league football, one every 150 minutes. He's one of the best around for getting players booked. He's an exceptional mover with the ball and a great salesman when coming under contact.
He's going to be a key player for Forest to stop, and I'm going to back Elliott Anderson to pick up a card at 5/2 with Sky Bet: he's going to be in that area where Xavi likes to roam and is liable for a late challenge.
Only three players have made more tackles than Anderson in the Premier League this season ,and he leads the way for cards this season for Forest, picking up eight across all competitions. The midfielder has been carded in two of his last four Premier League games under Vitor Pereira.
Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It might be the mecca of English football - to play there is every footballer's dream - but I'm convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game.
Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stake plays a part, which in turn leads to low-scoring matches, but I think games there rarely spark into life. The numbers remain damning and provide hard evidence that Wembley is a place to back low scores.
Across the last 49 domestic and European matches played at Wembley (so this isn't including international football), the average goals per 90 stands at 1.88 in normal time. And if you had backed the under 3.5 line in those 49 games, you'd have won 46 times. That's a 94-per-cent hit rate over a sample size of 49 matches. A huge return on your investment despite the prices being very short.
Along with backing a low-scoring game, I'm not comfortable going with Arsenal as favourites here. This is their first final appearance in any cup competition for almost six years, and in their last 17 away games in a Champions League knockout tie or at Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City, the Gunners have won just once.
The bet is Manchester City on the double chance alongside under 3.5 total goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
