Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend Premier League card, tipping up a 12/1 treble.
The fight has gone out of Burnley. And has been absent for some time.
Scott Parker's side look like they're just waiting for the inevitable drop, with just one win in their last 20 league games. Performances haven't been terrible every week, but there's a fragility and lack of belief that's hard to shake once it sets in. Turf Moor used to be a place where teams knew they were in for a scrap, now it feels like opponents arrive expecting chances.
One player I'm keen to focus on is Alex Scott.
Scott's influence in the final third is clearly growing under Andoni Iraola. The former Bristol City man is being encouraged to drive forward and support the attack rather than simply link play in midfield. That shift in responsibility is showing up in the numbers.
Scott has had two or more shots in seven of his last eight starts, regularly arriving late around the edge of the box or popping up in pockets where Burnley have been vulnerable all season. You can get 6/4 with Sky Bet on Scott posting two shots and a Bournemouth win.
There are a few interesting card angles in this game, especially when you start digging into the individual match-ups. Brighton want those one-v-one situations where their attackers can turn, drive and force defenders into uncomfortable decisions.
That's why Georginio Rutter is such an awkward opponent.
Rutter's style is based on sharp turns, quick feet and constant dribbling at defenders. He invites contact. The data around him drawing bookings is very strong. He's drawn eight yellow cards in just 1,600 minutes this season, which is an excellent rate, and since the start of last campaign he has forced 17 opposition yellows.
Players simply struggle to stop him legally once he gets running at them.
Noah Sadiki becomes interesting at the prices. Sadiki has been booked four times in his last nine starts, which already suggests he's playing on the edge when asked to deal with tricky attackers. He is 100/30 to be carded here with Sky Bet.
Pressure does funny things at this stage of a title race, but Arsenal have generally handled it well when facing teams who come to defend deep.
That's the scenario likely to unfold here.
You know exactly what you're getting from a David Moyes team away to the elite sides. Structure, discipline and a refusal to open the game up. It's a strategy designed to keep matches competitive for as long as possible. But the issue for Moyes is that the results in these specific fixtures have been brutal.
His record away from home against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City is remarkable for all the wrong reasons: 20 defeats in the last 21 matches.
Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet is a way to get the home win to a backable price.
The market is starting to take Chelsea very seriously under Liam Rosenior and when the numbers and betting moves align, it's usually worth paying attention.
Despite Chelsea eventually losing 5-2, there were notable moves from smart money backing Chelsea before kick-off against PSG. That sort of support tends to come from bettors who trust the underlying process rather than the occasional chaotic result.
And the process right now looks very healthy.
Across Rosenior's first eight Premier League matches, Chelsea actually lead the division for expected goals created, posting 2.4 xG per 90 minutes. Even more impressive is their xG supremacy (xG for - xG against) which sits at +1.2 per game.
Those are numbers usually produced by teams fighting for the title rather than those still trying to find their identity under a new coach. What's clear already is that Rosenior has quickly implemented a proactive system that generates chances.
That's why this could be a tough afternoon for Newcastle United, who will have much of their focus and attention on Barcelona in midweek. Chelsea to win by two or more goals at 2/1 with Sky Bet has a chance.
Man City's 3-0 loss to Real Madrid highlighted their struggles to create clear-cut chances against a side happy to sit deep. And it's not a one-off. In their last 18 away games, City have only won by two or more goals once - and even then, it came against Crystal Palace, where they actually lost the xG battle.
That tells you this vulnerability is real when City are tasked with unlocking a low block.
West Ham are no ordinary opponent either. Under their current setup, they're showing strong underlying numbers that suggest they should be pushing for European qualification rather than fighting relegation. They've looked revitalised in recent weeks. Their structure under Nuno Espirito Santo and ability to exploit transitions make them a tricky proposition for teams that rely on possession dominance.
They can avoid defeat here on the double chance with 6/5 on offer with Sky Bet.
When you talk about Crystal Palace, one name immediately jumps off the page when it comes to a likely goalscorer - Ismaila Sarr. He's Palace's main man, a constant threat in behind, and remarkably composed when he finds himself in front of goal.
Sarr has been in fine form recently, scoring five times in his last nine appearances, including a brace in the impressive win at Tottenham. His pace and movement make him very difficult to defend one-on-one, and he's rarely flustered when he gets a clear sight of goal.
What makes the 13/5 Sky Bet price for him to score look particularly appealing is something that doesn't get fully factored in - he's Palace's penalty taker. That's a huge edge, especially when you look at the referee for this one.
Thomas Bramall has a very generous record in awarding penalties, handing out seven in his last 15 games, including one in the reverse fixture between these sides (which Leeds won 4-1). That adds another route to the net for Sarr beyond his usual attacking instincts.
The clean sheet angle for Manchester United looks very appealing.
Michael Carrick knows exactly what he's dealing with in Morgan Rogers - he signed him at Middlesbrough and will have a clear plan to nullify his threat. And right now, that's the key to stopping Aston Villa.
Villa's attack has been toothless of late. They've managed just five goals in their last seven Premier League games and there's a sense their attacking ideas have gone stale. With Carrick's team likely to dominate possession and implement a disciplined defensive structure, Villa will struggle to find openings.
Stop Rogers, frustrate the other Villa attackers and you've got a scenario that heavily favours a Manchester United win to nil at 9/4 with Sky Bet. It's a way to back United's strengths against an out-of-form side that has lacked creativity in the final third.
Under Sean Dyche, Elliot Anderson often looked restricted, his creativity curtailed by a rigid system. His development was stagnating. But Vitor Pereira has handed him the freedom to express himself from midfield, and it's paying off. The young midfielder is taking shots, making late runs into the box and generally being far more influential in attack.
The numbers underline that shift. Anderson has had eight shots in his last three Premier League appearances, and that includes a brilliant finish against Manchester City, showing he's capable of producing quality when given the license to roam.
Anderson to score at 4/1 with Sky Bet looks very attractive.
When a team finds itself under pressure, there's a predictable knock-on effect of rash decisions, mistimed tackles, and that yields cards. That's exactly where Tottenham find themselves right now.
Spurs are leading the Premier League for yellow cards this season, with 74 so far - that's 2.62 per game. And if you look at red cards, only Chelsea have been dismissed more often than Tottenham, who have already racked up four reds.
The trend is crystal clear. Tottenham have been shown two or more cards in each of their last eight games across all competitions, including a spectacular five-card haul against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday. That kind of disciplinary record perfectly highlights the kind of issues plaguing this team and the pressure isn't going away when they visit a high-intensity opponent like Liverpool.
All this points to Tottenham to be shown over 2.5 cards at 6/4 with Sky Bet rating as a cracking wager.
The midfield battle could get spicy.
Brentford tend to rely on a lot of physical work in the middle of the pitch to disrupt opponents and one player who regularly finds himself walking that disciplinary tightrope is Yehor Yarmoliuk. Brentford's midfield enforcer has been carded in five of his last nine starts, which tells you he's not afraid to put his foot in when games get scrappy.
Wolves have a real handful in wide and central areas with Mateus Mane, whose direct dribbling style constantly forces defenders and midfielders into making last-ditch challenges. The youngster is excellent at drawing fouls in dangerous areas. Mané has drawn eight opposition yellow cards this season in just 1,200 minutes, which works out at a card every 120 minutes from players trying to stop him. Yarmoliuk could be in the firing line and is 7/2 with Sky Bet to be carded.
